Saturday, May 27, 2023

Some NSE Data Backtests & Possible Scenarios

The NSE website, although sometimes laggy and devoid of any data at all for particular securities, is indeed helpful for testing strategies. I was pondering over the delivery volume percentage data and the relative changes in prices of the particular stock. It can be seen that two possible situations are arising: 

- Whenever the equity delivery percentage is greater than roughly 65%, on say day 't', there is a spike observed in the price on the day 't+1'. This is the most likely case observed.

- The other possibility is the stock price spikes on the day 't+2'. 

- Of all the cases observed, there had no need to be worried about holding the stock.

I was going through the data for Emami Ltd, Birlacorp, DBCorp, Sun Pharma, and Eveready Industries and it seems that most of the time the hypothesis holds true. 

Friday, May 26, 2023

[26-05-2023] Trades Done


Some of the trades I did on 26-05-2023 are given below. The same delivery volume percentage criteria were used for selecting the stocks. 

Profits Booked in: Sun Pharma, Eveready, Cupid

Losses Booked in: Emami Ltd, Redington

Holding: M&M, Birlacorp, Fortis.

Some Learnings: 

- The taxes are significant, a bit of patience while holding the positions can help. Apart from this, the spikes usually occur after 2 PM, so there's a good chance that the stock will stonk towards the end of the day. 

- Do not buy stocks at peak. Stocks that are close to the previous day's close are safer bets, it seems. 










Thursday, May 25, 2023

Volume Day Trading

One of the methods I'm currently experimenting with is the equity delivery volume percentage and assisting it with basic technical analysis. I was in Indore, Madhya Pradesh recently during my summer vacation and learned the same technique from my mama ji. 

The basics of a BUY signal are:
- Delivery Volume Percentage (DVP) > 65%
- LTP > Rs 100 (Basically any share above Rs 100)
- High volume overall can also help. 

These can be assisted with technical analysis such as basic bullish or bearish divergences on RSI, Stochastic RSI, or MACD (which can be seen on Zerodha KITE). 

SELL: As I followed my mama, most of the trades he used to close at around +500 Rs. A spike in price usually is seen during the day, when the positions can be closed. Although the sizes were significant, it is comparatively less volatile and riskier than options trading. If implemented correctly, can help generate consistent daily profits. 

- If the stocks are good enough fundamentally, these can be held for a longer period too, with less risk of losing much money. 

Monday, May 8, 2023

First Day in Commodities!

I explored the commodities market, it has a lot of varieties too. You got gold, silver, crude oil, natural gas, and agri products. I have been studying moving averages and found that the 5 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) & the 20 EMA, have usually shown good crossovers for entries and exits. Another thing I saw in the commodities market is that prices largely follow a particular trend rather than being too volatile. I'm unsure if it is the daily scenario in the market or just a special day. Although there was news floating around on ET, that US recession fears around the world are fading due to which crude oil prices are going up. It mentioned, that in the previous three weeks, the prices fell as a result of the fear.

As I write this article, I see crude oil prices falling. One reason to be happy about this is that I do not have any open positions right now. I took two trades during the daytime, which fetched me a gross profit of 14.18% return on capital (i.e. ₹ 5500), including the charges (IC). Honestly, it really hurts to pay such huge amounts of brokerages, Rs 20 per order piles up to become monstrous amounts!

Another trade that I took was longing on NIFTY50. I earned around Rs 663 in that trade, ~ 6.89%. Overall, the sum total rough amount earned today was around Rs 1443 IC. 

Saturday, May 6, 2023

Why Write A Blog?

I would mostly document the strategies and concepts that I learn and implement, by reading books, articles and watching videos. That's the goal. I believe it would help me create a discipline, which would keep me motivated to learn more about markets. 

Although, I am relatively very new to markets, I have been interested to try my hands with equity for a long time. I think anybody who starts exploring this arena does get excited with the wide range of opportunities available for both trading and investing. I started my journey in the markets in a systematic manner since August, 2022. Earlier before that, all I knew about markets was from the finance club that was around the campus; although they claim to be an active club, they barely conduct any events. Ironically, one of the founding members of the club hadn't even tried anything at all in the markets, apart from doing a few coursera courses. In those days, I just used to look at stocks once in a while. I remember that I used to look at TATA Motors quite frequently, since it was a hot stock back then among the few of the people in college who used to buy and sell stocks. "Bhai, TATA Motors upar chala gya", "Maine TATA Steel kharidi aaj", there was some real excitement among people while discussing about their stocks. There were also some friends who used to trade Banknifty options. However, back then I was totally away from markets. I put in my money first in a few stocks, out of excitement, since my amateur father used to send me screenshots of how his mutual funds, stock portfolio had been stonking. So, I saved up some money and put them in mutual funds, because they seemed to be safer given I have absolutely zero knowledge about picking stocks. 

Anyone who has been in markets for long, would know how the benchmark has performed since 2021; a literal rollercoaster. Many of my friends said, "sahi waqt mein ghusa hai markets me", as they implied it's a good time to invest. Towards the end of September, I was in my sociology class where I saw one of my friends, who is now placed in a HFT firm, pondering with his portfolio. We are great friends, apart from common interest for markets; both of us run a alt account on Instagram where we make or post memes. That day he showed me some of his stocks which had given him good returns, if I remember right, some of them were NDTV and Adani Wilmar. "Bro aaj Wilmar 5% upper circuit", said one of the friends in class. I didn't understand circuits back then, although I assumed that it is something good given they were really happy discussing it. Hindenburg Research hadn't hit the conglomerate till then, so "Growth with Goodness" (GWG) was very much surging up. The GWG company, also got me putting in some money in it, although I did sell my shares the day after the Hindenburg report was released, before the fallout happened. I had this general belief that before the 2024 elections, nothing too bad can happen that can cause any kind of major breakdown in the Adani stocks. 

As of now I'm in loss, partly due to trading. Although I am learning about it, and have an aggressive plan for summer. I would try looking into how commodities trading work, and more about equity through books and courses I found. I will post my next blog based on my learnings soon!