Tuesday, September 5, 2023

Still Alive and Trading (Some Backtests & New Theories)

The delivery trades have been pretty good, apart from two fucked up stocks namely Borosil Renewables and Cummins (although it seems to be a fundamentally great stock with a healthy dividend yield). These two stocks went down around -10% before which I had to close my positions in order to get back my funds to look for better trades. Although a great strategy, a large share of my portfolio must be allocated for a single trade, which certainly is unhealthy. Even after the drawbacks, I tried backtesting some of the stocks that regularly go beyond 65% delivery volume, and the returns over a period seem promising. In some cases the stock may have generated single-digit returns in a year, or even negative, but the delivery volume strategy has outperformed the aforementioned.

Stocks that were used for the backtest are:

(1) Bharti Airtel:

Entry Condition: Buy @ (Day Opening Price on Day n+1) if (Delivery Volume on Day n >= 65%)

Exit Condition: Sell @ (Day High) or (Next Day High) 

[Dubious af, because how the hell is one supposed to know the day high]


 The Backtests; The Rightmost column shows the return generated on every trade from Sep 2, 2022 to Sep 1, 2023



(2) Emami Ltd.

You can try the same for Emami, it generated around 100% over a period of time when the stock fell like 27%. Cringe Excel did not save the files for some reason and I'm too tired to backtest it now lmao.